]]> http://www.jeffdepascale.com/index.php/mobile/bing-app-launched/feed/ 1 http://www.jeffdepascale.com/index.php/mobile/2010-predictions-iphone-os-version-4-0-changes/ http://www.jeffdepascale.com/index.php/mobile/2010-predictions-iphone-os-version-4-0-changes/#comments Thu, 10 Dec 2009 20:38:24 +0000 Jeff dePascale http://www.jeffdepascale.com/?p=246 As 2009 draws to a close, it's a good time to start preparing for upcoming trends and advances in the web and mobile space. The first in a series, this post is all about what should be the buzz of March 2010: the iPhone OS 4.0 announcement.

 If history is any indication (and with Apple, it definitely is), we know a few things are likely facts about the next major iteration of the iPhone OS.

1. It will be announced in March and released to registered developers shortly thereafter
Apple's annoucnement schedule is growing increasingly rigid. You can bet on the beta announcement sometime around mid March, and a new device with 4.0 in June (with the release to existing users close behind).

2. It will include a fair amount of the buzz items that have been predicted, but not all of them
A lot of the speculated features won't make it to 4.0, but the good ones will, on two conditions. One, that they benefit Apple, and two, that they are timely (we'll leave technically feasible out of the mix since it goes without saying). Apple is a marketing machine, sometimes at the expense of what is best for its growing user base. The benefit to them is that those decisions often grow that same user base by destroying competition by releasing features in a timely manner, gathering more buzz than they would have, and often times implementing the functionality better by learning from the early adopters mistakes. Apple has a track record of doing just that incredibly well. Copy/Paste & MMS? I rest my case.

3. It won't do true multitasking
I'd dare say that the truth is that they probably could do it now technically, but they still won't. Its far too soon to eat their own words about why its a poor decision, and, while push notifications are still incredibly useful on their own, the way in which they were touted as a replacement for multitasking makes a larger time gap necessary to keep Apple looking like they were correct last year, and that they are still correct now.

 4. It will deliver at least one unexpected, buzzworthy feature
Apple knows that to get buzz, they need at least one thing to tie up blogs about for a two week period. to do that, it needs to be ground breaking in some way. Expect something unexpected in some form for March, but likely more of a technological benefit than a glossy, direct end user benefit - thats saved for number 5:

5. There will be at least one major feature of the final release not announced in March
OS 3.1 existed both for bug fixes and to give developers access to the unnanouced video player API that was clearly ready well before and saved for the 3GS launch. Expect at least one unnanounced API that is device specific to the next gen iPhone/iPod Touch that won't be available in the 4.0 beta, but will be in 4.1, which will probably be in September.

6. No more paid updates for Touch devices
It's been batted around the web for a while now, but the real reason this is likely is due to the huge market share the Touch now accounts for. Getting that user base on the latest OS may soon outweigh the dollars from paid upgrades.

7. The end of the road for 2G iPhone/1st gen iPod Touch device support
It was a possibility with 3.0, but its a near inevitability with 4.0 - the original 2G and the 1st gen iPod Touch will likely no longer be supported. 3.0 runs comparatively poorly on these devices as it is. 

My predictions for new OS 4.0 features:

1. Background processes
Further promoting the "we don't need multitasking" mentality, I'm guessing some form of background or shell-style app integration will be allowed, possibly via the copy/paste menu, which could easily be a full context menu. This opens up the option for simple application accessors to be available between apps, which brings me to #2:

2. Cross application access
Right now, the sandbox between third party apps and anything else is exceedingly rigid. Some form of improvement will be made to allow more explicit communication to core apps and possibly even other third party apps, but this is much less likely in this iteration of the OS.

3. Event modes and location awareness
Based on patents filed by Apple, this is a logical change to make it more lifestyle integrated. The device will change modes and operating states based on calendar events, timers, physical device location, and likely device docks as well. They need something to compete with Android 2.0's car mode (not to mention Google Navigation, which i think Apple is preparing a competitor to, but not in this release).

4. The end of the home screen as we know it
It just doesnt work anymore, and the iTunes 9 interface for moving the icons around is clearly a stopgap solution for a company that puts such emphasis on interface. Do we really think that Apple will stick to a paradigm that requires connecting a mobile device to a physical computer to easily manipulate the icons? If anything, grouping will appear, but I'd expect a substantial change to the home screen interface this time around.

5. Sync access to third party apps via iTunes
The http port workarounds for third party apps to upload and download data is a mess and confusing to most users. Moreover, the inability to sync data any way other than over the air is problematic at best, and is one of the last benefits that Palm and WinMo still hold over Apple. I'd be very surprised if Apple doesn't fix that quickly.

6. The end of the name 'iTunes'?
The application is clearly no longer named properly, and the recent acquisition of Lala is a good opportunity to spin iTunes into something brand new, cloud based, possibly a Pandora killer. If the 'tunes' portion of iTunes is due for such an overhaul, it would be an opportune time to rename the core application and clarify that audio is but one of the functions that the application serves. Apple's push into the enterprise sector will be huge this year, and an application that seems worthy, both in functionality and name, in a business environment, seems essential.

So there you have it, my thoughts for 4.0. What do you think about 4.0? Sound off in the comments.